Teams: For the first time, Lacalle Pou's management approval is below 50%

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47% of Uruguayans approve of the administration of President Luis Lacalle Pou, according to the latest survey by Equipos Consultores, presented this Wednesday on Underlined (Channel 10). This is the second consecutive loss recorded by the measurement.

In addition, it is the first time since the president took office that his management approval is below 50%, as well as with negative judgments greater than 30%. This level of approval is below the level of voting that it had in the second round of November 2019 (49%).

In May, approval stood at 60%; in July it fell to 55% and dropped eight percentage points in the measurement carried out between July 23 and August 2, covering 500 people from all over the country.

"Lacalle Pou reaches his first year and a half in a climate of favorable balance opinion regarding his management, but showing some erosions in the last two months," says Equipos. "Particularly in the last month, the evolution of judgments on presidential performance has been negative," adds the consultant.

Equipment explains this drop by two factors. Although the pandemic "helped" him sustain high levels of support for the government, "perhaps 'control' of it can cushion this effect." Another factor considered by the consultant is that while the measurement was carried out, "the public agenda strongly revolved around the increase in the price of fuels, and the possibility of even increasing the price of supergas." In this sense, they propose that the increases may have generated a significant impact on public opinion due to the "sensitivity" of the issue." As the "pandemic alignment" weakens, other issues on the agenda begin to have greater influence on judgments about the government," says the consultant. This measurement comes a few days before Lacalle Pou completes his first year and a half in office on September 1. If the level of approval is compared with other presidents from the government of Luis Lacalle Herrera to this part of the government, Lacalle Pou has the highest level of approval.

In July 1991, Lacalle Herrera garnered 17% approval; Julio María Sanguinetti received 26% approval in July 1996, Jorge Batlle 27% in July 2001, Tabaré Vázquez 43% in July 2006, José Mujica 46% in July 2011, while Vázquez in his second term, also a year and a half of government, he garnered 35% approval. The difference in the level of approval of Lacalle Pou between the coalition and the Broad Front "is not striking, but its magnitude is striking," says Equipos. The president garners 83% approval in the coalition and 10% among the voters of the Broad Front. Disapproval, meanwhile, is 5% in the coalition, while it climbs to 68% in the opposition. "Teams constructed a polarization indicator by averaging the differences in the views of both blocks (government and opposition), in order to be able to compare with other periods. This indicator theoretically varies between 0 and 100, with 0 representing identical opinions between both blocks, and 100 the maximum possible differences. In July, the result of the indicator was 68, that is, a value closer to the maximum than to the minimum," says the consultant. On the other hand, the latest Teams survey shows that Lacalle Pou's level of disapproval increased four percentage points and stands at 32%, the same increase ratio as among those who neither approve nor disapprove of their government, which is 20%. Regarding what will happen in the coming months with presidential approval, Equipos opens up different scenarios. "If this fall is fundamentally explained by the weakening of the "pandemic alignment", this would probably imply that the deep and prolonged "honeymoon" that the government has had (unprecedented in its duration since there is a public opinion poll in Uruguay) could be ending", the consultant states on the one hand. However, if "more relevance is given to the situation associated with the increase in fuels, it is not necessarily necessary to think that the fall will have sustained effects. It could perfectly well have been a punctual effect product social anger of the moment, that it be reversed (at least partially) in the following months". Another scenario that Equipos points out is that "the context of the probable start of an electoral campaign around the referendum for the repeal of the Law of Urgent Consideration , it is rather conducive to the polarization of the trials remaining high (not necessarily as high as in July, but high nonetheless)".